Posted on: October 21, 2010 4:24 am
Hey, who wants to read 3,900+ words about the Northwest Division? You? Too bad! This is only 3,895! HAHAHA RUSE'D!
If you want to see the entirety of this post as it was intended, complete with embedded Youtube videos and a comment section that lets you swear (I think, go test it! Drop the W word! The one that is the official word of the California Gubernatorial Race!), go check out TSHQ . It's a blog that I contribute to, and it has tons of awesome things I have written about sports and gambling and great meals I've ate lately*. Tonight I ate Atlantic bluefin tuna. It costs like $80 a pound. I had a pound and a half, ate half a pound extra rare over some rice, then took the other pound, cooked it a bit more, and threw some mayo on it. Tomorrow I'll be eating Atlantic bluefish tuna fish sandwiches. This either makes me the most balling person you know or a total redneck who never should have been given money. Point is, I have $40 tuna fish sandwiches in my fridge, and that's more interesting then what you did yesterday, and TSHQ is more interesting that whatever blog you read yesterday, so read it.
Also, some other guys for this very board post there, so it's like one giant family. And I'm Bill Gates, and I won't give any of them a dime, because they are all worthless freeloaders that need to earn their Atlantic bluefin tuna. Which they could do if they read the Sexy Six at TSHQ , because WCF and myself are now 8-1 against the number in college football. Cheap plug FTW!
2010-2011 K.M. Venne Northwest Division Preview
The Northwest is stacked. Between Oklahoma City, Portland, and Utah, that is 3 teams that should crack 48 wins most the time. Denver is a team in turmoil, Minnesota is a team rebuilding (we think, who the hell knows with David Kahn). But there is no better battle for a division winner, there is no more important division for sorting out the West seeding, and between Utah and Portland not being afraid to make a trade to be a buyer (Utah having left some luxury tax flexibility this offseason by not going out and spending), and Denver likely to become a seller at some point, the Northwest could provide the pieces that shake up some other divisions as well.
But above all else, OKC, Portland, and Utah offers a race that is really tough to
handicap. Let’s face it, the NBA isn’t the MLB or the NFL, where surprise division winners happen all the time. Last year, it would have been foolish not to pick Boston, Chicago, Orlando, the Lakers , and Dallas as 5 of your division winners. But the Northwest? It could have went any of 3 ways to start the year, and almost went a 4th way when Oklahoma City rose up. This is a division without a lot of large fan bases, but with a lot of quality basketball and a race that may see the final week of the season, this is a basketball fan’s division. Let’s jump in and see who will take the crown and who will make the playoffs, and then let’s laugh at Minnesota for being so damn bad.
1.) Portland Trail Blazers
Youtube Song for their 2010-2011 season:
Hangar 18 - Megadeth
NBA Draft: Elliot Williams , Luke Babbitt
Free Agents - in: G Wesley Matthews
Free Agents - out: C/F Juwan Howard , F Ryan Gomes (waived)
Trades - out: F Martell Webster
Training Camp Roster:
F LaMarcus Aldridge , F Nicolas Batum , G Jerryd Bayless , F Marcus Camby , F Dante Cunningham , G Rudy Fernandez , G Andre Miller , C Greg Oden , F/C Jeff Pendergraph , G/F Brandon Roy , C Joel Przybilla , G Wesley Matthews, G Elliot Wililams, F Luke Babbitt, C Steven Hill , G Armon Johnson , G Patrick Mills , F Raymond Sykes
Selective amnesia’s the story, believed foretold but who’d suspect…
Here they are. The baby Blazers. The Houston Texans of basketball. The team that everyone loved to pick for breakout team for the last 3 years, but never fulfilled their destiny. And now, finally, the Oklahoma City Thunder have risen up and claimed the mantle of “Next team to make ‘the leap’”, and Portland finally does not have to deal with the pressure that comes with being the trendy underdog pick. The Blazers limped home to a 50 win season last year, failed to protect their home court up to the standards you would have expected from Rip City, suffered injuries to top players all year long, and still answered the bell by making the playoffs with tons of games to spare.
Still, this is a roster capable of doing so much more. Andre Miller is a pretty damn solid NBA point guard, believe it or not. Brandon Roy is like a mini Kobe, or a super Stephen Curry , depending on how you want to look at it. He’s a do everything guard that can lead a team’s offense from the SG spot. LaMarcus Aldridge is a star in the making, Marcus Camby does nothing but play solid basketball, Greg Oden one day will play some NBA ball, and when Greg Oden plays basketball, he’s WAY better then you think he is (PER of 23.1 last year!), Wesley Matthews was paid a ton of cash and Blazers fans are falling in love with him, Nicolas Batum is a player that plays such great defense and can do things on the offensive end that Minnesota tried to trade the #4 overall pick in the last draft for him, an offer Portland turned down, overall, this a quality roster.
But even beyond the talent that we’ve always known that Portland possesses, this season represents a sea change for the team, no longer looked at as an up and coming squad, instead nearly an afterthought behind Utah and Oklahoma City in the Northwest. Nobody is thinking this is Portland’s year, when next to nothing has changed for the team from the times that people thought every year was going to be Portland’s year. Did teams get that much better? Or did picking Portland just fall out of favor? One thing is for sure, Portland no longer carries the weight of expectations that they have never accomplished as a unit on their shoulders, and free from the burden of being asked too much too soon, this group can finally actually sneak up on some teams, win some games they probably shouldn’t, and achieve up to what this roster looks like it could.
I could go on about Portland, but I’ve really said all there is to say. This roster is WAY better then you probably remember it being, I mean Miller/Batum/Camby serve as role players that most teams would love to have, and nobody questions that Roy/Aldridge is a legit 1-2 punch, and throw in anything from Matthews or Oden, and you got a roster with all the tools to go far in the playoffs and win regular season games. And best of all, finally this team can enjoy selective amnesia, forgetting about how the major media touted this team as a team on the rise, and just go ahead and actually BE a team on the rise. Let Utah and Okalhoma City deal with the exceptions. This is actually the year the Blazers do what they should have been doing. This is the year the Blazers rise up into the Western elite. Believed, foretold for the last few seasons, but who’d suspect that 2010-2011 is the year it happens? Me. And if you read this, maybe you, too.
Prediction: 1st in the Pacific, 3rd in the West, 54-28 record
2) Utah Jazz
Youtube Song for their 2010-2011 season:
The Trooper – Iron Maiden
NBA Draft: Gordon Hayward
Free Agents - in: G Raja Bell , C-F Francisco Elson , G Earl Watson
Trades - in: C/F Al Jefferson
Free Agents - out: F Carlos Boozer , F/G Kyle Korver , G Wesley Matthews
Trades -out: C Kosta Koufos
Training Camp Roster:
G Sundiata Gaines ,, F Andrei Kirilenko , F C.J. Miles , F/C Paul Millsap , C Mehmet Okur , G Ronnie Price , G Deron Williams , G Raja Bell, C/F Francisco Elson, G Earl Watson, C/F Al Jefferson, F Jeremy Evans , C Kyrylo Fesenko , G Gordon Hayward, G/F Othyus Jeffers , F Demetris Nichols, G Ryan Thompson
We get so near yet so far away, we won’t live to fight another day…
Oh, the Jazz. It’s gotta stink to be a Jazz fan. Every year your team is good. Most years, your team is really good. But nobody ever considers you a legit contender. Nobody wants to play you in the playoffs, but nobody will pick you to win the West. It’s a tortured existence, kinda like Dallas, but somehow with even less upside. If Portland is the Houston Texans of the NBA, the Jazz are the Dan Marino Dolphins, good enough to scare you, never good enough to win anything.
The Jazz are far from free spenders, but they spend well. Knowing they didn’t want to lock into Boozer, the Jazz picked up Al Jefferson, who, with the play of a elite point guard, could break out this season and nearly match what Boozer offered. And if not, Paul Millsap is around to help overcome the production loss that comes from losing Boozer. Kyle Korver and Wesley Matthews went off to go get paid, but that’s ok, those are far from death blows to any franchise. The Jazz are well coached, still talented, and should be able to be about as good as they were last year.
It’s at this point I inform you how good the Jazz were last year, and that is way better then you think. By some metrics like Pythagorean W-L record, the Jazz were actually the 3rd best team last year. Not in the West, I’m taking the NBA. They were top ten in offense and defense, they have a great home court, an elite NBA superstar in the horribly nicknamed D-Will, plenty of size, and cause any team problems. It’s not like the Jazz can’t absorb a learning curve to start the year and a slight hit to their overall talent level. This team has talent to spare, quite frankly.
The major question is, what is going to get the Jazz to the next level? As the defending Pacific champions, they were able to take care of the Nuggets , who were falling apart at the end of the year, only to get owned in the face by the Lakers, showing again that the Jazz are not a serious threat to go super deep. Gordon Hayward is the only real answer the Jazz have, if he blows up out of nowhere and becomes a fringe rookie of the year candidate, perhaps this Jazz team can actually make noise this season. Anything less, and the Jazz should regress a bit. But the Jazz are regressing off of a 53 win season that easily could have been a 55 win season, so they got a few games to lose. I’ll take 4 wins away, but that still gives the Jazz home court in the first round and a very respectable regular season. It’s never the regular season that’s in doubt for the Jazz. It’s the second round of the playoffs, when they get so close, yet so far away, and time and time again, don’t live to fight another day. And that’s a story I expect will continue, barring someone on this team making the leap.
Prediction : 2nd in the Northwest, 4th in the West, 51-31 record.
3) Oklahoma City Thunder
Youtube Song for their 2010-2011 season:
You’ve Got Another Thing Coming – Judas Priest
NBA Draft: Craig Brackins , Quincy Pondexter
Free Agents - in: G Royal Ivey
Trades - in: G Daequan Cook , G Morris Peterson , Cole Aldrich
Free Agents - out: F/C Etan Thomas , G Mustafa Shakur
Trades - out: Craig Brackins, Quincy Pondexter
Training Camp Roster:
F/C Nick Collison , G Daequan Cook, F Kevin Durant , F Jeff Green , G James Harden, C Serge Ibaka , C Nenad Krstic , G Eric Maynor , C Byron Mullens , G Thabo Sefolosha , G Kyle Weaver , G Russell Westbrook , F D.J. White , C Cole Aldrich, G Royal Ivey, G Morris Peterson
That’s right, here’s where the talking ends, well listen this night there’ll be some action spent…
It’s the most popular opinion in the NBA right now, the Thunder are Brock Lesner in NBA form, the Next Big Thing. Kevin Durant is the heir apparent to the throne LeBron vacated, Russell Westbrook is only going to keep getting better, Cole Aldrich is the missing piece for this team at center, James Harden is going to become a serious weapon this season, Jeff Green does not suck, and the Thunder are going to challenge for the #1 seed in the West.
You’ve got another thing coming.
First off, I fail to see how the hell Kevin Durant is going to make another leap. He’s already a 30 ppg on 20 shots a game scorer, deadly from the line, pretty solid from the arc, a solid rebounder, a poor as hell passer, and adequate on the defensive end (at best). What is going to get better? Is he going to score 34 on 20 shots now? Is he magically going to get to 5 assists? Is he going to start to get 2 steals and 2 blocks a game? Will he never miss a free throw? Listen, I like Durant, a lot in fact. I think he was the 3rd best player in the NBA last year. But why is he going to magically become #1? And why would that really matter if he did? He’s going to be exceptional, but after a while, when you are on Durant’s level and you just dominate everyone, how much more can you really do? It’s not like anyone slowed him down last year, so how does he help the win total? I don’t see what more people want from Durant.
Complimenting Durant is the underrated Westbrook, the overrated Green, and role players like defensive specialist (and he is special on D) Thabo Sefolosha, bench scorer James Harden, and now center acquisition Cole Aldrich, and all these players seem to be expected to make some sort of progression instead of regression. Well, I hate to break it to everyone, but none of these players is going to make a serious leap, Westbrook might make a minor one, but the rest are due for a return to the mean. Green and Thabo both played 82 games last year, as did Westbrook and Durant. Health like that just doesn’t repeat itself.
And worst of all, outside of Durant and Westbrook, nobody on the Thunder last year could crack a PER over 14, which is a decent amount BELOW average, outside Serge Ibaka, who is getting his minutes cut. People want to take Durant and compare him to LeBron as the anti-LeBron, and in turn want to put the Thunder into the Cavaliers mold of the last few seasons. Sadly, this team to me more resembles the Heat of the last few years. Stud, decent compliment, and role players at best surrounding them, which is not a winning formula.
It’s near hearsay to not predict the Thunder for your top 3, but this team is not that good, it lacks depth, it lacks assits, it lacks quality shooting, as evident by the team eFG%. I defy this team to have the health and the favorable situation as a come out of nowhere team from 2009-2010 repeat itself. This team is not going to win 50 games again, of that I feel strongly. With Durant in the West, you cannot miss the playoffs. But with this supporting cast, you can’t really make much noise in the regular season, either.
Find me the quality that this team has that I’m not seeing but you do. Defend these role players. Predict near perfect health again. Tell me this team is going to have the same starting lineup for 76 games this year, and keep it’s best 4 players playing all 82. Show me who is going to step up and take this team to the next level. Hell, tell me who’s gonna stop this team from regressing in wins. And then I’ll tell you how wrong you are, and if you really think the Thunder will be better then a low seed and a first round exit this season, you’ve got another thing coming.
Prediction: 3rd in the Northwest, 7th in the West, 46-36
4) Denver Nuggets
Youtube Song for their 2010-2011 season:
Stricken - Distrubed
Free Agents: F Al Harrington , F/C Shelden Williams , G Anthony Carter
Free Agents: C Johan Petro , F/G Joey Graham , F Malik Allen
Training Camp Roster:
G Arron Afflalo , F/C Chris Andersen , F Carmelo Anthony , F Renaldo Balkman, G Chauncey Billups , G Ty Lawson , C Nene, G J.R. Smith , F Kenyon Martin, G Anthony Carter, F Al Harrington, F/C Shelden Williams, G Anthony Carter, F/C Melvin Ely , F Gary Forbes
There’s no hope and we know, that I am crippled by that you’ve done, into the abyss will I run…
One of the craziest teams to predict, the Denver Nuggets are stricken with the demands of Carmelo Anthony to leave the abyss that is Denver and reach basketball nirvana by joining the New York Knicks and play his home games at the Mecca of basketball, the World’s Most Famous Arena, Madison Square Garden located in the heart of the greatest city on earth.
What? Don’t be such a Knicks homer? Go to hell, I do what I want.
Anyway, this team has problems. Melo is problem #1. Also, he’s problem #2 and problem #3. But sadly, the list goes on. Chauncey Billups appeared to finally lose it at the end of last season, his three point shooting went down nearly 10% after the All Star break, and his assists fell way down, because he’s so concerned with getting his 20 a night, he started taking more shots despite missing more. That is not the kind of leadership you need from your point guard, that goes without saying. Further complicating things for the Nuggets, Kenyon Martin is making noise about a contract extension, perhaps forgetting Denver overpaid him by about 40 million last time around, looking to go back to the well and get another overpriced deal, which is a distraction at minimum. J.R. Smith is still crazy as hell and knows he’s on the trade block, as Denver would love to move him and his salary If they have to part with Melo, and that is not a situation conducive to the volatile Smith being Good Smith.
Other then that, things are just fine for Denver. Then again, that’s like saying other then the fact you just lost your girlfriend, job, and house, you are doing well. Nene continues to be an underrated center in this league, and will have to produce his usual highly efficient scoring even more as the situation around him becomes more and more chaotic. Al Harrington was a nice pick up, adding a new dimension to the Nuggets and offering a player who can help carry the scoring load once Melo bolts the city. And Ty Lawson continues to be one of the best young players in the league, if Billups is indeed traded after Melo goes, Ty Lawson has the talent to step right in and be a quality PG starting PG, that is one less problem the Nuggets have to solve.
But replacing Melo is a problem for them. And with ownership unwilling to take on salary in a Melo trade, the Nuggets are going to get nothing but IOU’s and Magic beans for the All-Star, perhaps they will turn into something in the future, but in the near term, they won’t amount to squat. I mean, lets face it, there’s a good chance the Nuggets are terrible by the start of 2011. Someone has to lose way more games then most people think they will, after all, the West isn’t going to average 47 wins this season, so I predict that the Nuggets eat it on the chin. With a star looking to the East, a washed up PG who still thinks he’s a star, a shot chucking PF who only makes sense once the Nuggets deal the house, and a disgruntled Kenyon Martin, who is always a good bet to punch someone, this team is not going to win many games. At all. You’d be a damn fool to predict them to squeak into the playoffs, what’s the last team that had a superstar who didn’t want to be there and a secondary offensive player who is officially fallen off the cliff that made the playoffs? There’s no hope in Denver, they are stricken by what Carmelo has done, and into the abyss of the NBA lottery will they run.
Prediction: 4th in the Southwest, no playoffs, 36-46 record
5) Minnesota Timberwolves
Youtube Song for their 2010-2011 season:
Round and Round - RATT
NBA Draft: Wesley Johnson , Lazar Hayward
Free Agents - in: F Nikola Pekovic , G Luke Ridnour , C Darko Milicic , F Anthony Tolliver
Trades - in: F Michael Beasley , F Martell Webster, C Kosta Koufos, G Sebastian Telfair
Trades - out: F Ryan Gomes, C/F Al Jefferson, G Ramon Sessions , C Ryan Hollins
Training Camp Roster:
G/F Corey Brewer , G Wayne Ellington , G Jonny Flynn , F/C Kevin Love , C Darko Milicic, F Wesley Johnson, F Lazar Hayward, F Nikola Pekovic, G Luke Ridnour, F Anthony Tolliver, G Maurice Ager , G Jason Hart , C Kousta Koufus, F Michael Beasley, F Martell Webster, G Sebastian Telfair, C John Thomas
I knew right from the beginning, that you would end up winnin’ ...
Really, I gotta tell you more? Jesus…
Let me try to sum up what is up with the Timberwolves. They dealt their second best player, Al Jefferson, who to nobody’s surprise was one of their only two good players, to make room for Michael Beasley, best known for going to rehab for weed and being a total bust. He is shooting under 40% from the field this preseason, bottom 10 for qualified players in this preseason. So far, Beasley has an EFF of 8 in preseason action, dead last for those scoring over 12 a game. For those who are not NBA savvy, that’s a really bad combo. They gave Darko Milicic, who had a PER of 12.9 in Minnesota last year, but Minnesota fans are so beat up they actually thought that was good basketball (and compared to some players like Jonny Flynn, it probably does look like good basketball), a 4 year deal. For those who are not NBA savvy, Darko sucks. They gave Nikola Pekovic 3 years and 13 million, who was All-Euroleague first team in 2009, making him by far the most accomplished Timberwolves player. That’s not a very encouraging sign.
Kevin Love can ball. He’s a great rebounder, good passer, he can score pretty well, and he’s not awful on D. If he’s your second best player, you are probably a pretty decent team. However, he’s the Timberwolves only good player, and his win shares/48 of .138 is nearly double the second best Wolves player that played in Minnesota last year and is still on the roster. If Kevin Love is twice as good as your second best player, you are probably a pretty awful team.
The Wolves are switching from the ill conceived triangle offense, that was set up in sole part to ensure they received .30 cents on the dollar when they traded Al Jefferson this offseason (NOTE: This is fact), to an up tempo style that should result in your fantasy players going totally bonkers every time they play the Wolves, who lack the defensive talents to defend in the full court and will likely let up crazy points.
The Timberwolves lack the point guard to play an up-tempo style, a problem they hope that Ricky Rubio will one day solve for them, but in the short term, is only going to show off their biggest weakness, a complete lack of guards who are worthy of the label NBA player. Running when your best players are big men is not exactly a recipe for success in the league. The Wolves probably don’t care, as I’m sure they are much more interested in locking up the #1 pick in the draft, I mean heck, Enes Kanter should be available then, and lord knows the Wolves could use another center. But this season, when you see a Wolves game on your TV, which won’t be too often I’d imagine, you’ll know right from the beginning, that the other team will end up winning. At least about 80% of the time…
Prediction: 5th in the Southwest, no playoffs, 17-65 record
* food blogging doesn't actually happen. Story is true, however.
Posted on: October 13, 2010 12:46 am
Hey, who wants to read 4,150+ words about the Pacific Division? You again? Welcome back!
If you want to see the entirety of this post as it was intended, complete with embedded Youtube videos and a comment section that lets you swear (I think, go test it! Drop the C word! The one Favre only has 4 inches of!), go check out TSHQ . It's a blog that I contribute to, and it has tons of awesome things I have written about sports and athletic contests and sports. Also, some other guy for this very board post there, I'm not sure who they are, I don't care about anyone else on this site or any other, but again, I have other stuff on it, so bookmark it and read what I write in two places, that's like a threesome where your mind gets the best 3 minutes of it's life, then can read the rest while eating a sandwich.
2010-2011 K.M. Venne Pacific Division Preview
The Pacific was a lame conference last year. The Lakers emerged as the West’s #1 seed, the Suns came out like a house of fire, stumbled, then got hot late and made it to the West Finals, and the Clippers, Warriors, and Kings played pretty terrible basketball. The Pacific is set up to be an even lamer conference this year if you listen to the national media. The Lakers are expected to be even better, last year they were a 57 win team treated as a 65 win team, there is no reason to expect that to not just grow this year. The Suns are all but written off due to the loss of STAT. The Warriors might get some play early on due to the David Lee trade and having Stephen Curry, but that will fade away quickly if the Warriors play typical awful Warrior basketball. The Clippers will remain a media joke unless they win some games, and Sacramento will only be interesting as people debate what city they will soon call home, unless they win some games.
I don’t buy into the negative and boring perception of the Pacific heading into this year. What was lame last year may be really interesting this year. I see some surprises, some failures, and some interesting subplots developing, and while the winner of the Pacific can be etched in stone right now, there is more to the Pacific then the top team (unless you are a L.A. fan, of course. They exist in a 2 team NBA).
Of note, I wrote an overall rock solid prediction of the Pacific last season as the only division I previewed, I about 18% more accurate with my season win predictions then Vegas was, so if you are going to take any of my predictions to the pay window, this may be the one.
1.) Los Angeles Lakers
Youtube Song for their 2010-2011 season:
Ace of Spades - Motorhead
NBA Draft: Devin Ebanks, Derrick Caracter
Free Agents - in: G Steve Blake, G Derek Fisher, C Theo Ratliff, G Matt Barnes
Free Agents - out: G Jordan Farmar, F Josh Powell
Training Camp Roster:
F Ron Artest, G Kobe Bryant, C Andrew Bynum, F Pau Gasol, F Lamar Odom, G Sasha Vujacic, F Luke Walton, G Derek Fisher, G Shannon Brown, G Steve Blake, G Derek Fisher, C Theo Ratliff, G Matt Barnes, F Devin Ebanks, F Derrick Caracter, G-F Trey Jonson, C-F Drew Naymick
Pushing up the ante, I know you’ve got to see me, Read ‘em and weep, the dead man’s hand again…
Far too much is being made of the Lakers offseason, and the first thing that comes to mind, is why? Not “Why?” as in “Why the hell is the media interested in these players?”, more as in “Why the hell is the media rightly interested in these players?”. The NBA Champions lost nothing, and are the defending champions. Therefore, why the hell were they really looking to add this many pieces? They got Steve Blake to help spell the aging and re-signed Derek Fisher, which is an important move. They also got Matt Barnes, Theo Ratliff, and drafted Devin Ebanks and Derrick Caracter, all of which seem on their face to be pointless, where are the minutes for these guys, who may be ok, but have much better people in front of them?
The answer as to why the Lakers additions are being made a lot of is also the answer to what about the Lakers is being made far too little of. And that is the fact that this is Phil Jackson’s last year, a year after he got pushed to 7 games by the Boston Celtics in last year’s Finals, and now faces a Heat team that could be the same kind of favorite over his Lakers as his Lakers were over the Celtics.
Phil only cares about winning the title this season, and believe it or not, I think Phil learned a lesson from Doc Rivers (yes, it felt just as stupid to type that the Zen Master learned something from average at best X’s and O’s coach Doc Rivers as you felt stupid reading that).
And that is, the regular season is worthless. Take your aging team, get healthy, and make a run at the title.
Kobe recently said his knee was about 60%. Well, he’s not going to be doing much playing until he feels 100%. Bynum has had his timetable pushed back on his return. I would be surprised honestly if it’s not pushed back yet again before he wears a uniform. Pau will probably miss some games, Fisher will see another reduction in his minutes, and overall, the Lakers are going to be taking it easy this season. This would seem to be a recipe for a low seed, given how last year the Lakers honestly only made the playoffs by 7 games. Lose a couple extra games, and who knows how far you fall?
But I’m still going to say they get the #1 seed in the West. I think the West is weaker, the Lakers are still a team that has star talent on the court even if they are without one of their key players, and also the Lakers made the moves they made, meaning that at any time, Steve Blake, Matt Barnes, or Lamar Odom can be the replacement that gives a starter some rest. The Lakers are deep for a reason, they are going to use that depth to ensure they get to the playoffs in 1 piece. They won’t come close to the record of the Heat or perhaps a couple other East teams, and are highly unlikely to make a possible Finals with home court, but they are going to put themselves in the best position to make the finals, and that is with rest, with depth, and with a short memory. And still, that depth is so good, I predict 58 wins and the #1 seed.
Oh, you want a key to this season? Well, the media and the fans talk LA enough, but I’ll bring up one point, and that is Ron Artest. The playoff hero was still by and large a regular season and beginning of the playoffs zero, he needs to speed up his learning curve in the triangle offense and either regain his 3 point stroke or lose it, because that thing is not reliable, one shot does not a shooter become born again with. For all the gambles L.A. will make this year, how they treat Artest will be the biggest. Will they keep pushing up the ante and ask more and more of him as the season goes on? Will Artest show up as the winning hand when it counts again? Or will the Lakers and Artest continue to be more of a failure then a success overall? In the grand picture, the easiest way the Lakers can compete with anyone in the East is to get the old Artest back, and this regular season, his play will be every big as big a factor in determining the Lakers post-season success as anyone else. You want to see how the Lakers are looking? Watch Ron-Ron, L.A. will go this year as he goes. He is truly the dead man's hand, again.
Prediction: 1st in the Pacific, 1st in the West, 58-24 record.
2) Phoenix Suns
Youtube Song for their 2010-2011 season:
Godsmack – I Stand Alone
NBA Draft: Gani Lawal, Dwayne Collins
Free Agents - in: F Grant Hill, F Hakim Warrick, C Channing Frye, G Matt Janning
Trades - in: G/F Josh Childress, F Hedo Turkoglu
Free Agents - out: F Amar'e Stoudemire, F Louis Amundson
Trades – out: Leandro Barbosa
Training Camp Roster:
F Earl Clark, G Goran Dragic, F Jared Dudley, C Robin Lopez, G Steve Nash, G Jason Richardson, F Grant Hill, C Channing Frye, F Grant Hill, F Hakim Warrick, C Channing Frye, G Matt Janning, G/F Josh Childress, F Hedo Turkoglu, G Chucky Atkins, G Zabian Dowdell, F-C Dwayne Jones, C Garret Siler
I’ll never rest until I can make my own way, I’m not afraid of fading, I stand alone…
You gotta be a cold hearted scumbag not to have felt for Steve Nash last season, as he had another chance at seeing the NBA Finals slip away from him despite his inhuman efforts. Finally, years of Suns front office penny-pinching, the same penny-pinching that has prevented the Suns from adding that one piece for years with draft picks, has disassembled the team that Nash took to the WCF, refusing to pay Amar’e the top dollar a second team All-NBA performer deserves and losing the key partner in Nash’s game.
Thankfully for Suns fans, this season will not go like last year, but not be a complete disappointment, either. The best thing the Suns have going for them is two fold, firstly, the inability of many non-playoff teams from last year to make the moves necessary to rise up to a level above fringe contender, and partly due to that, secondly, the ability of Steve Nash to will a group of competent, if not exceptional, players to a playoff birth.
The major place where the talents of Steve Nash are able to effectively raise the collective level of his team into the playoffs, unlike, say, a Chris Paul, is the fact the Suns retain their most notable strength from last season, depth. The Suns depth in the 2009-2010 season was unparalleled in the entire NBA, and their second units’ advantage over the bench of other teams was more important to them then the abilities of the first unit to match up with other starting 5’s. The Suns won games not just in the fourth quarter, but at the start of the second, the middle of the third, and the end of the first, when teams rest their talent and bring in the reserves. Players like Goran Dragic, Channing Frye/Robin Lopez, Jared Dudley, and now Josh Childress and Hakim Warrick will have to play above the level of the competition they will face, but all except Warrick have proven the ability to do well against second unit players.
Overall, people like Alvin Gentry and some Suns bloggers think the Suns could be even better this season. I call those people high as hell. The Suns are a playoff team due to Steve Nash and a second unit, perhaps better then I think due to the fact that Hedo’s ball handling can allow Nash to prove to the doubters that he is, bar none, the greatest shooting point guard to ever play the game, and excel in a half court role, but most of all, due to the fact this team gives other teams fits during the regular season due to the depth factor, you never really catch a break any night the Suns are on the schedule. The Suns will lose more game and more bad games, they will not put together the amazing stretches of playing great ball over 2-3 week periods they did last season, but they will benefit from the decreased level of competition in the West, and they will see the playoffs. I wasn’t surprised they made the playoffs last year, but I did have them as the 8 seed, I was very surprised to see them as the 3 seed. This year I’m going to drop them in the 6 seed, higher then last year, but I’ll actually be MORE surprised if they reach a top 4 seed, if that makes sense. Because the greater dreams of the Suns are dead, because when it comes down to the big moments of big games, for the first time in a long time, Nash stands alone.
Prediction: 2nd in the Southwest, 6th in the West, 47-35 record.
3) Sacramento Kings
Youtube Song for their 2010-2011 season:
The Smashing Pumpkins - Zero
NBA Draft: DeMarcus Cousins, Hassan Whiteside
Free Agents - in: F Antoine Wright
Trades - in: C Samuel Dalembert, F Darnell Jackson
Free Agents - out: F Sean May
Trades - out: F-C Spencer Hawes, G-F Andres Nocioni, F Jon Brockman
Training Camp Roster:
F Omri Casspi, C Samuel Dalembert, G Tyreke Evans, F Francisco Garcia, F Donte Greene, F Carl Landry, F Jason Thompson, G Beno Udrih, F-C DeMarcus Cousins, F-C Hassan Whiteside, C Samuel Dalembert, F Darnell Jackson, C Connor Atchley, G Joe Crawford, G Luther Head, F Darnell Jackson, G Eugene Jeter, F Marcus Landry, F Antonie Wright
You blame yourself for what you can’t ignore, you blame yourself for wanting more.
The coolest video from the band with the coolest hot guitar chick, playing the coolest song about the coolest illegal drug on the face of the earth perfectly sums up my thoughts of the Kings this year. The Kings are awesome as hell, and it’s important that people figure this out now before the season starts. The best thing you can do for yourself is to start talking about the Kings a lot, get in on the ground floor of the Sacto pyramid scheme, and reap all the rewards when the scheme takes off and you can claim “I was on them first!”
I think a lot about how sweet this season is going to be for the Kings, and that makes me an NBA junkie loser, yes, but it also makes me aware of what is going on right now in Sacramento. And what they have going on is special, exciting, and going to surprise a lot of people this year. The Kings best starting 5 right now is Tyreke Evans, Beno Udrih, Omri Casspi, Carl Landry, and DeMarcus Cousins. Does that sound impressive to you? It sounds solid to me.
It’s at this point that I should probably point out that I am actually being dead serious. That is a great lineup. Evans and Landry have the ability to be top 7 players at their position. DeMarcus Cousins floor right now is the seventh best center in the NBA; he could become the clear second best center in the league by the time this season is over, that’s the ceiling for Big Cuz. He’s the one for me; he’s all I really need, oh yea, as the song above goes. He’s got what could be the best low post offense in the entire NBA right now, without playing game one in the league. His natural ability, impressive handles, and ugly but effective game is, to me, a near lock to produce big numbers this season. 15/14 is on the table.
Getting the rock to Boogie, as he is known, is the rightful and defending rookie of the year, Tyreke Evans. Putting up a 20/5/5 statline last year as a near one man show, he will only make Cousins better, and vice versa. His major knock is his distribution, but in a guard duo with Udrih, a decent player who actually compliments Evans game very well, Evans can spend year two doing more of what he does well and having to do less of what he does not do well. I was amazed at how good “Reke Havoc” was in year one, I do not intend on being surprised if/when he makes another leap this year.
Two men don’t make a team, but Carl Landry is a quality NBA player. A beast last year in Houston, he did not fit in well with the Kings when he was acquired in the Kevin Martin deal. This bodes in the Kings favor, as he is too good to perform at the slightly above average level he did for the Kings, he is likely to get back to near his Houston level of great NBA player. Toss in any production from the SF spot, and consider the Kings have Jason Thompson and Samuel Dalembert as backup bigs, who are pretty good for backups, and this is a quality team. They are a bit too young to make the playoffs, but they will shock the hell out of the entire league if they can go .500. I’ll actually give them a bit more credit then that, and call 42 wins and the surprise team of the year. And I’ll probably watch a lot of them, this team I can’t ignore, and I’ll blame myself for wanting more.
Prediction: 3rd in the Pacific, no playoffs, 42-40
4) Los Angeles Clippers
Youtube Song for their 2010-2011 season:
System Of A Down – Lonely Day
NBA Draft: Al-Farouq Aminu, Eric Bledsoe, Willie Warren
Free Agents - in: F Ryan Gomes, G Randy Foye, F Brian Cook, F Craig Smith
Free Agents - out: F Drew Gooden, G Steve Blake, F Travis Outlaw
Training Camp Roster:
G Baron Davis, G Eric Gordon, F Blake Griffin, C DeAndre Jordan, C Chris Kaman, F Craig Smith, F Rasual Butler, F Ryan Gomes, G Randy Foye, F Brian Cook, F Craig Smith, F Marqus Blakely, F Al-Farouq Aminu, G Eric Bledsoe, C Jarron Collins, G Stephen Dennis, G Jon Scheyer, C Jake Voskuhl, G Willie Warren
Such a lonely day, and it's mine. It's a day that I'm glad I survived...
The Clippers offseason was one lonely day after another, as efforts to land any big time free agent, from LeBron to Pierce to Dirk, didn’t give the Clippers any more then lip service before bolting elsewhere. Clipper fans are used to bad things happening, players being injured, draft picks becoming busts, and any sort of failure one can imagine, but most of all, they are used to having a team that is just incapable of winning enough basketball games to be any sort of relevant don their uniforms, and the attempts to change that this offseason were met with results that were beyond predictable, closer to predestined.
Do the Clippers have some talent? Sure. Chris Kaman is a decent center, plays ok defense, scores the ball fairly well, a player who can get you 20 on any given night, but never 30 (oddly, Kaman has had 79 20+ point games, but 0 30+ point games). Baron Davis is still a decent point guard, his 8 apg is actually really solid in today’s day and age, only a handful of point guard came close to his assist numbers, and he can score the ball when he gets hot. Eric Gordon brought his sharpshooting to Team USA this summer and did well for himself, and Blake Griffin, barring another fluke injury, will make his debut this season as the #1 overall pick of the 2009 draft, after losing his entire season last year to injury.
But, knowing the Clippers, it won’t matter. Blake Griffin is almost destined to be a decent player, then have lost his rookie year to injury, lose a year to a lockout, and never get the chance to do anything of note for the franchise. Baron Davis is on the cusp of starting the late career freefall, and if the Clippers start to get any momentum, it almost seems a given his play will start to drop to ensure the Clippers don’t succeed. Offseason moves and draft picks brought in Eric Bledsoe, a Nate Robinson type instant offense chucker, who won’t really fit in on a team that has no problems taking bad shots on it’s own, and F Al-Farouq Aminu is the answer the Clippers made for their lack of a small forward, but he’s a project that will struggle to produce meaningful points.
Am I being overly pessimistic about the way the Clippers season will go? You could argue that, after all, on paper, the roster looks like a 30-33 win team. But, when you compare the roster to the roster of last year, how are the Clippers that much different? Sure, coaching changes have occurred, but even before game on, Vinny Del Negro has heard the rumblings about a coaching shake-up. Marc Iavaroni is viewed in some as the future head coach for the Clips, and it’s said to just be a matter of time. This is indicative of the reason you never predict the Clippers for any kind of real success. They will continue to go unnoticed, be irreverent, and enjoy a lot of lonely days in Staples, just being glad to survive.
Prediction: 4th in the Pacific, no playoffs, 28-52 record
5) Golden State Warriors
Youtube Song for their 2010-2011 season:
Metallica – King Nothing
NBA Draft: Ekpe Udoh
Free Agents - in: G Jeremy Lin, F Dorell Wright, G/F Rodney Carney, F Louis Amundson
Trades - in: G Charlie Bell, C Dan Gadzuric, C David Lee
Free Agents - out: G C.J. Watson, F Anthony Tolliver
Trades - out: F Corey Maggette, F Kelenna Azubuike, F Anthony Randolph, C Ronny Turiaf, G Anthony Morrow
Training Camp Roster:
G Charlie Bell, C Andris Biedrins, G Stephen Curry, G Monta Ellis, C Dan Gadzuric, F Reggie Williams, F Brandan Wright, F Ekep Udoh, G Jeremy Lin, F Dorell Wright, G-F Rodney Carney, F Louis Amundson, G Charlie Bell, C Dan Gadzuric, C David Lee, F Jeff Adrien, F Vernon Goodridge, G Aaron Miles,
Careful what you wish, you may regret it. Careful what you wish, you just might get it…
The kings are dead. Long live the kings.
Don Nelson has been the king of apathy on the sidelines for the Warriors for the last few years. His calling cards of laziness were crazy lineups, minute distribution that makes no sense, and a sense that he just didn’t care. Meanwhile, Chris Cohan, bad owner, finally sold the team to billionaire Larry Ellison. No wait, Ellison bid more money, but didn’t get the team, instead they sold it to Joe Lacob, who talks a big game, but will he back it up?
It seems pointless to judge Lacob on this season, because the former terrible kings of Oakland basketball, Nelson and Cohan, still have their stink all over this team. Keith Smart got the new head coaching job for Golden State, and is expected to try to bring a defensive mentality to the squad. However, this team still has a Nellieball cast, with Ellis and big time acquisition All-Star F/C David Lee not exactly knowledgeable about what a defense is or how to do it. The Warriors drafted defensive forward Ekpe Udoh, but he injured himself and will miss about all of 2010. The Warriors seem like what would happen if Mike Singletary took over the Indianapolis Colts and tried to instill a power running game, the lack of personnel capable to do the things coach Smart wants to do is going to produce some hilarious results, unless you are a Warriors fans, then it will produce the same level of winning you have become mostly accustom to.
This is not to say the Warriors are without any future hope. David Lee is locked up, and he is a fantastic pick and roll player with a great jumper, who has got better every year on the offensive end. Stephen Curry is a big star in the making, and Curry/Lee will be an offensive force for the near future. Monte Ellis still knows how to score the basketball, and he will be more important then ever with the losses of quality players like Corey Maggette, Anthony Randolph, and Kelenna Azubuike, the latter two players that would have been a great fit for Keith Smart’s new plans, but instead were traded for David Lee, who will have to adjust to the way Smart says he wants to coach.
In the end, the more things change in Golden State, the more they seem to stay the same. Many people figure the rash of injuries the Warriors suffered last year means that the Warriors have no choice but to be better this season, more so when you consider they added an All-Star player. But the Warriors injuries last year pretty much resulted in a garbage in, garbage out scenario where scrubs were replacing scrubs, and the roster lost more then it gained when you consider depth, scoring, and defense lost. Are the Warriors on the right path? Time will tell. But it won’t be any time soon. This team is still full of the 2009 makeup, but lacks the 2009 talent or the 2009 staff that at least tried stylistically to get the most out of the roster. Golden State is in for hard times this year, Warrior fans may be best served finding an Eastern Team, because until the Warriors finish revamping their roster to fit their new style, this will be a mismatch made in basketball hell, and not pleasant to watch. Warrior fans have wanted to see wholesale changes for a while, but careful what you wish, because you got it, and in the short term, it might just be uglier then it was back when you were praying for someone to do something different.
Prediction: 5th in the Pacific, no playoffs, 24-58 record
Posted on: September 28, 2009 6:38 pm
The Pacific division last year brought to you your NBA champions, the Los Angeles Lakers. Other then that, it brought to you lottery picks.Will it be the same song and dance this year, a Lakers cakewalk? Will someone rise up and give the Lakers a sweat for the division until the last couple weeks? Will anyone else emerge as a playoff team? Who's cuisene will reign supreme?
1. Los Angeles LakersLet me just get this out of the way right now, so you can stop reading this preview and go straight to complaining about it. The defending champion Los Angeles Lakers lose about 26 games this year.
A 65-17 team last season, this year will present a bunch of new challenges to the Lake Show. First off, the addition of Artest is not all roses. Artest does not seem to me like the kind of player that will thrive in the triangle, surly he won't come into the season and mesh perfectly with his teammates on the offensive end. Will they just shut Artest out of the triangle until he gets into the groove, or will Artest waste possessions by not getting the ball movement the triangle craves? Either way, expect a rocky start to the season for LA as they work out the kinks of working a ball holding SF into a fluid offense.
Artest is also expected to alleviate the burden on Kobe on the defensive end, allowing him to focus on his offensive domination. I'm not sold that is a great thing for Kobe. I still expect Kobe to be a top 3 player in the MVP voting this year, but when he is focused on just carrying the weight of the offense on his shoulders, he can sometimes try to do too much.
Lamar Odom was resigned, which is good, but he also got paid, and for a player who's heart has always been questioned, getting paid may not be the best thing for regular season success (same could be said for Artest). The play at PG for the Lakers was fine in the playoffs, but needs to improve in the regular season to avoid the extra handful of losses I expect to see. Pau will likely have a fine year, but Bynum is always an injury question mark going forward into a full season.
The champs will have the bullseye on their backs, sure the Lakers is always a big game for every team, but heavy lies the crown, so expect teams to give LA their best shot every night out this season. I expect a sluggish start out the gates, a couple of games where they face superhuman efforts from teams looking for a signature win on the season, and in general I'm not sold this is the best regular season team in the West. Come playoff time, I expect this team will round into form and be a serious threat to repeat. But I expect them to have to do it as the #2 seed in the West this season.
My prediction: 56-26 (2nd seed in the West)
2. Phoenix SunsThe Suns are going to be back to the Suns of old, just with less overall talent. Steve Nash is back to give you everything he has this season, but his tank isn't as full as it once was. Jason Richardson has a year under his belt in the Phoenix system and could have a nice year. Grant Hill teams with Nash to provide veteran leadership that will be key for this team as they scrap for a playoff birth. Amare is finally got the paint to himself, and if he plays a full season, expect another All-Star caliber year from Stat. The additions of the promising rookie Earl Clark and the cronic underachiever Channing Frye are great pieces to round out this team's starting 5.
Let's not get fooled, this is still the Suns, a team good enough to give the best teams fits, and also inconsistent enough to drop games vs. the bottom of the barrel in the NBA. But the Suns are finally back to being the Suns, and that counts for something. With hope of a solid starting 5, this is a team that can improve on last season's record, and a repeat of last season's record would normally be enough to get the job done.
I expect the Suns to squeak into the playoffs, given the weaker status of some of the playoff teams from the West from last season. But I expect that to be as far as they can go, and this year really means nothing for the future of this franchise. The look of the Suns in 2010 will be far more important then trying to win one playoff game this year. But meanwhile, this is a squad that will alternate between flashes of the struggling Suns of last year and the good Suns of years before, and that's a dangerous proposition for any team in a 1 game matchup, but not dangerous enough during a 7 game series.
My prediction: 48-34 (8th seed in the West)
3. Golden State Warriors
What an interesting team. Anthony Randolph and Anthony Morrow were the toast of the Summer League, both dropping 40+ point games. Monta Ellis is a year removed from his injury, but still a long time removed from the explosive player that used to cause teams fits, and what Monta we see this year will be huge for this team. Andris Biedrins is a solid player that really works in the GS system. rookie Stephen Curry is a big name, but his minutes might be limited as he fights for time with Ellis, Claxton, and Law all in town now. Kelenna Azubuike is one of my favorite sleeper players in the NBA right now, he has an abundance of talent.The Warriors are very young, with an average age of about 25. Don Nelson coaches this team. Does that sound like a good mix to you? It doesn't to me, either. Sure, his offensive system may be great for these young gunners, but he is a coach that has been known to have little patience for mistakes, and this team will make a ton of mistakes this year.
This team is a few years and a new coach away from making any serious noise. If you like fantasy players, this team will probably interest you greatly. If you like wins, this team just isn't ready for that at the moment, it has little D, little leadership, and little chance of improving that much from last season. I don't see anyone making a leap so great it changes the fortune of this team from this year to last. This will be a fun team to watch, big games galore, for both Warriors players and players playing the Warriors. But I don't know how they win close games, tough games, or many games.
My prediction: 30-52 (LOTTO!)
4. Los Angeles Clippers#1 overall pick Blake Griffin joins a team that already has Baron Davis, Marcus Camby, Eric Gordon, and Chris Kamen. The Clippers do not lack for talent, as they have finally started trading for talent and signing talent in the last couple years.
The Clippers are just plain dysfunctional, however. Coach Mike Dunleavy is awful. None of the players really seem to work well with each other (of course Blake is an unknown how well he will work with the team). They rarely show much fighting spirit.
If the games were decided on talent, then the Clippers would be a very good team. Isiah Thomas once traded for a bunch of talented players that didn't work together with the Knicks. I see a lot of the same with the Clippers. This team just seems to have no heart.
There are a lot of people that would like to see a new era in Clippers hoops. I can understand their thoughts. The key for the Clippers, the light at the end of the tunnel, will be how well promising second year man Eric Gordon plays with promising rookie Blake Griffin. If those two look like they could be the start of something, the Clippers might really have a foundation in place. If Baron Davis can join in and build a three man nucleus, then that is even more promising a sign for the beleaguered franchise.
But this is the Clippers. It's never wise to hold your breath waiting for them to show signs of turning into a contending franchise.
My prediction: 20-62 (LOTTO!)
5. Sacramento KingsWhat can be said about the Sacramento Kings that hasn't already been said about Afghanistan? They are bombed out and depleted.
Coming off a 17 win season last year, they drafted the very raw Tyreke Evans (take it from a Memphis college hoops fan, I don't see this kid being a huge performer this season, he's got a ways to go), trading for Sean May, and just hanging tight. Kevin Martin is a legit star in this league, but he's not a player you want to be your #1 option. Worse yet, he's not a guy you want to be your only real option.
The Kings bring nothing unique to the table as far as style goes, they are fully invested in freeing up cap room for the 2010 sweepstakes, they are not a good basketball team right now, and they will glady make any trade thrown at them that will make them worse this season to free up more cap room or bring in a cheap piece for the future. This team isn't even really trying to win this year, and there is nothing wrong with that, but there is also no system to shock anyone, no superstar to win a game by himself, no hope of achieving despite the odds. I don't see where any Bad News Bears story could rise up out of the ashes of this once contending franchise.
If you are a Kings fan, all you really care about is seeing how Evans, Martin, and Nocioni play this year, hoping Udrich and Garcia up their game this year, and seeing who you end up drafting after this year ends. With owners that have shown a willingness to compete in the past, you can count on the Kings to be active in trying to get their team back to respectable, but you can tell that team is taking a long term approach to returning to prominence, and meanhwile the fans will have to take their lumps. Last year was a big lump, and I'm willing to predict that this year is somehow even worse then the last.
My prediction: 15-67 (LOTTO!)
Again, don't shoot the messenger, I was happy to step from the Knicks to giving my opinions on the Western Conference, opinions of which I have plenty of, but I know that my thoughts that the Lakers may not have a great regular season, that the Warriors, for all their young talent, won't translate that talent into wins, that the Clippers, for all their big names, will continue to be the Clippers, and for more hard times in Sacto, may not play well with fans, but hey, just be happy that I don't get to decide the season, it's just one fans opinion of how it will happen. Remember, it's a lot easy to come back and tell me how wrong I was then for me to find all of you and brag about how right I was, so take that as comfort if you don't like what you read.
Posted on: July 8, 2009 2:48 pm
This is a total game changer for the NBA as a whole, and I still can't fully believe the full scope of what this news really means. I'm literally stunned. Let me try to break it down to give everyone the complete picture...
First off, as anyone who has read my work on the recent NBA free agents has seen me mention many times, the salary cap is derived from something called BRI, or Basketball Related Income. The general idea is to take the total basketball revenue of the NBA, divide it by almost half (51% to be exact, the share that should go to the players), and then divide that by 30 for the 30 teams. I expected the 2009 cap to come in at 59 million dollars or so, I was thinking there would be a 1% increase in the BRI. This was a bad thing for teams targeting 2010 free agents, because the cap has grown from 3-5% every year for the last 4 years or so. Less cap growth means less cap overhead to spend on max deals for the big time class of 2010.
Well, the 2009 cap is in now. And it's DOWN 1%. Last year, the salary cap was 58.7 million (roughly). This year, it's 57.7 million.
All those free agents that expected to get 5.9 million on the mid level exception contracts they signed, they are only going to get about 5.7. Trevor Ariza, Ron Artest, they both just watched about 3 million dollars vanish. Hedo Turkoglu probably just lost 10 million dollars over the life of his long term deal unless the Raptors get creative and make more cap room for him (or I am missing something, but I feel good about being right about this). Anyone who wanted to make a run at the restricted free agents like David Lee, Paul Millsap, or Ramon Sessions, they just lost about 2 million dollars in cap space between what they thought they would have to offer and what they really do. This is a game changer on a level I can't overhype, it's big time news.
I could write all day about how this changes things for David Lee alone. Nobody has the cash to offer him an under the cap deal he would accept. And nobody now has the money to throw him an offer the Knicks won't be really tempted to match. The Knicks are rumored to want to keep Lee at a price like 7 million dollars. Lee wanted 10 million. Lee is very unlikely to get what he wants now, 10 million is a lot more today then it was tomorrow, not just because of the drop in the cap, but the predicted drop in the cap going forward (the huge news I will get to soon). The unfathomable might just have happened, David Lee might stay in New York for a number of years. But as much as I love the Knicks, this news goes far beyond the situation in New York.
Let's go with a direct quote from tWWL for this one:
In a memo announcing next season's salary cap and luxury-tax threshold, sent out shortly before the league's annual July moratorium on signings and trades was lifted at 12:01 a.m. ET Wednesday, NBA teams also received tentative projections from the league warning that the cap is estimated to drop to somewhere between $50.4 million and $53.6 million for the 2010-11 season. This floors me. The economy for the NBA is worse then I ever thought, on a scale of like 4 fold. And I have been on record as being VERY gloomy about the future of the NBA on the economic side. I expected a 2010 cap of 63 million, which is far less then the numbers like 68 that have been thrown out by a multitude of sources, both large and small. I can't believe this! Let's take the number 53.1 million dollars for a 2010 cap and let me show you how huge this is for the NBA (I have previous data for a cap number of 53.1 million dollars that I can use to give you accurate information).
Let's take LeBron James, the poster child of the 2010 offseason. He had a 17.1 million dollar team option that he was expected to decline. It was thought that he would be able to get an offer on the level of 17.5 million from other teams on a cap of 63 million. But now the cap is going to be (let's say) 53.1 million.
LeBron's max salary in 2010, if he opts out, is 25% of the cap, and that is the 48.04% BRI cap rate (called the Alternative Cap), not the 51% BRI cap rate that me and you know as the cap. At 53.1 million, LeBron's new MAX deal would be just under 15 million dollars! The Knicks, the Nets, the Pistons, anyone you think would want to offer LeBron a deal, they can't even offer The King 15 million if this doom and gloom prediction comes true. Cleveland, however, still has LeBron's bird rights, and now they can offer LeBron way more money then any other team. Advantage Cleveland?
Yes and no.
It's true that Cleveland can offer LeBron a 6 year deal starting at 17.2 (roughly) in 2010 if LeBron does opt out, while the Knicks can only offer 5 years starting at 14.9, but the real question now is, do you want to offer LeBron that much money? Think about this, 17.2 million is roughly 33% of the total cap! If the Cavs add Chris Bosh at 15, that's just under 20 million to field a team! In theory, you can build a team with 20 million, but unfortunatly for the Cavs:
Mo Williams - 9 million
Delonte West - 4.5 million with a 500k buyout (non-guarenteed deal)
Daniel Gibson - 4 million
J.J. Hickson - 1.5 million
Total, roughly 20 million.
The Cavs literally would have to sign another 6 players for the league minimum (does not count against the cap) to field this team. It would be Mo, LeBron, Bosh, West, Gibson, Hickson, and a bunch of D-League players. How can that team compete with Kobe and Gasol and Bynum and Artest and maybe Odom (very likely Odom now, the Lakers are probably dying to lock Odom up and his market just went down the tubes with this news)? I don't think they can.
There is next to no good way to play 2010 now. The NBA might literally find themselves in a state of anarchy. All these free agents are going to get FAR less money then they ever thought (remember, when the cap goes down, the MAX on new deals goes down!), and if they stay where they are for the Bird Rights to get more money, then their team will have next to nothing to find new pieces to help them.
I could go on all day about how this changes things, but I can happily report that Knicks GM Donnie Walsh is ALREADY making moves to adjust. How? He just offered Grant Hill a huge deal, 5 million for 1 year or 10 million for 3. That is 250% more then the Knicks were offering before this news.
Why? It's because of the new biggest name in the NBA trade/free agent market, a cost controlled player who can help your team win without a big cap hit. All of a sudden, the most coveted player for any team that is trying to win in 2010 and knows it needs cheap players to do so.
Try to follow this. Grant Hill makes Wilson Chandler expendable. Wilson Chandler makes the Timberwolves ears perk up.
And Ricky Rubio might just be the biggest player a team that wants to sign anyone big in 2010 can get. A cost controlled starting PG that loves to pass and make teammates better. He's got star power. He's got a low cap number. He could be the best player in the 2009 draft.
And his upside just got about 5 times more desirable, for a number of factors, most of all the cap.
I'll be here all day to field questions, I'm only stopping here because I have so many different thoughts, I'd like to save the rest of them to share with people who have specific questions, and I could use the break to get a better grasp of how expansive this news truly is. Feel free to stop in and ask anything, I'm very happy to answer to the best of my ability anything you want to know or me to make more clear!